China's crushing debt levels, ageing population and an ongoing property crisis means it may never surpass the US to become the world's largest economy, according to a leading investment bank.It is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP, behind the United States, and the world's largest economy since 2016 when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). China accounted for 19% of the global economy in 2022 in PPP terms, and around 18% in nominal terms in 2022.Assuming a 5 percent annual growth rate, China might not overtake the United States until 2035. Some analysts even argue that China's economy may never surpass that of the United States.
Will China ever pass America : It is now unclear whether China's GDP will ever surpass the U.S. and nations around the world are rethinking their ties to Beijing and the debt trap that is the Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, China's population growth is done. Chinese entrepreneurs are leaving the country. Optimism is dimming among Chinese youth.
Will China surpass the US
Some analysts even argue that China's economy may never surpass that of the United States. When considering further the vast soft power and geopolitical advantages the United States holds over China, it appears unlikely that China will displace the United States as a leading global power in the foreseeable future.
Will China be number 1 economy : According to the report, China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability, if it maintains GDP growth of about 5 percent annually in the next few years, and at least 4 percent growth until 2035.
That puts India on course to overtake China as the world's biggest growth driver by 2028. Even in the most pessimistic scenario — in line with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projections for the next five years in which growth stays below 6.5 per cent — India overtakes China's contribution in 2037.
The US economy's strong performance in 2023, along with the challenges faced by China's economy, suggests that China's GDP overtaking the US is less likely. US gross domestic product rose 6.3% in nominal terms, compared to China's 4.6% gain in 2023.
Which country will be most powerful in 2100
According to the forecast by Fathom Consulting, Asian economies such as China and India are expected to lead the global economy with the highest GDP share. The report forecasts China to have a share of 22.68% and reach $101 trillion by 2100.Cebr's last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world's largest economy measured in dollar terms might be delayed to 2036 from the 2028 date previously forecast.“The latest … is that America's time of global dominance is finished, and that new powers, such as China, India, and Russia, are poised to take over.” There has been no shortage of optimism about China since, like a 2011 Foreign Affairs headlined the “The Inevitable Superpower” and a 2018 piece from The Economist …
Assuming a 5 percent annual growth rate, China might not overtake the United States until 2035. Some analysts even argue that China's economy may never surpass that of the United States.
Is China a superpower yet : Currently, only the United States fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower. At present only China, the European Union, India, and Russia have consistently been academically discussed as having the potential to attain superpower status.
Is the US stronger than China : In almost every respect, China's armed forces lag behind the U.S. military by at least a couple of decades; in many areas they even compare poorly with the “hollow force” that the United States fielded in the immediate wake of the war in Vietnam.
Which country will be richest in 2050
This statistic shows the projected top ten largest national economies in 2050. By 2050, China is forecasted to have a gross domestic product of over 58 trillion U.S. dollars.
By 2100, India's GDP will be 294 trillion, 36% larger than that of then-second-placed China (Table 4). Nigeria, which currently has the biggest economy in Africa, will have the third-largest economy in the world in 2100. It will be followed by the USA, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Ethiopia.Assuming a 5 percent annual growth rate, China might not overtake the United States until 2035. Some analysts even argue that China's economy may never surpass that of the United States.
Who will control the world in 2050 : According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, China's GDP alone in 2050 would be equivalent to 20% of the world's economy, while India will surpass the United States to become the second largest economy of the world.